Research, Early Warning & Conflict Analysis
Evidence-based analysis and early warning to inform policy and prevent escalation.
PRINCIPLE 01
State primacy
We support, not replace, state authority.
PRINCIPLE 02
Community ownership
Communities lead, solutions are locally owned.
PRINCIPLE 03
Hybrid mediation
Traditional systems, religious jurisprudence and modern practice together.
PRINCIPLE 04
Regional harmonization
Bridging ECOWAS and AES through shared learning.
Research, Early Warning & Conflict Analysis
About this program:
Evidence-based analysis and early warning to inform policy and prevent escalation.
Good decisions need good evidence. We provide evidence-based analysis and early warning to inform policy and prevent escalation, and what we learn feeds into our dialogue, mediation and policy advice.
Our analysis starts from the regional context: the rise of violent extremist organizations, political fragmentation between ECOWAS and the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), socio-economic grievances and weak governance. We share learning across both blocs, in line with our commitment to regional harmonization.
In practice (illustrative example) Regular analysis may flag rising tension in an area. That analysis is shared with the relevant national and regional partners, and it can prompt early dialogue before the situation escalates.
Key points
- Evidence-based analysis
- Early warning to prevent escalation
- Informs policy and dialogue
- Covers ECOWAS and AES countries
Military responses are necessary but not sufficient.
Expected impact: Stronger trust between states and communities. Improved governance and social inclusion.
Stay informed